Real Estate Forecast for Guanacaste: 2026 Predictions for Buyers and Investors

As the turquoise waters of Costa Rica’s Pacific coast continue to lure surfers, retirees, and savvy investors alike, the province of Guanacaste stands on the cusp of another transformative year. After a record-breaking 2024 in terms of tourism and property sales, the question many are asking is: What’s next?

Whether you're eyeing an ocean-view villa, a pre-construction condo in Playas del Coco, or a parcel of jungle land near Nosara, understanding where the market is headed in 2026 is crucial. Based on economic indicators, infrastructure developments, and shifting global lifestyle trends, the forecast for Guanacaste’s real estate market suggests continued growth- but with strategic shifts that informed buyers should pay attention to.

📈 2025 Recap: What We Learned

Before looking forward, let’s consider the landscape in 2025. According to data from the Costa Rican Chamber of Real Estate Brokers and local MLS systems, Guanacaste saw:

• A 6.8% increase in median home prices year-over-year.

• Over 30% of all property sales made to North American buyers.

• An uptick in cash transactions, as high interest rates abroad made foreign financing less appealing.

• A surge in pre-construction projects, particularly in the Papagayo Gulf and Tamarindo areas.

  
  

With international arrivals through Daniel Oduber Quirós International Airport (LIR) returning to near-record levels, the demand for short-term rentals and second homes stayed strong-even as global economic jitters cast uncertainty in other markets.

🔮 Trend 1: A More Selective Market, But Not a Slump

The first prediction for 2026: Guanacaste’s market will remain strong, but we will likely see a cooling of the rapid pace experienced in the post-pandemic boom.

“We’re not expecting a crash. But we are seeing a shift from fear-of-missing-out buying to more thoughtful, strategic purchasing,” says Mauricio Álvarez, a broker with over 20 years of experience in the region. “Buyers want location, legal clarity, ROI-not just lifestyle fantasy.”

Expect a modest 4–6% price increase in well-positioned areas like Pacifico (Playas del Coco), Playa Hermosa, and the hills of Flamingo. Meanwhile, properties in less developed or speculative zones may remain flat or appreciate more slowly.

🛫 Trend 2: International Access Will Keep Driving Demand

One of Guanacaste’s strongest advantages over other tropical markets is accessibility. Liberia’s international airport now boasts over 20 direct flights from the U.S. and Canada, with new routes expected in 2026 from Boston, Dallas, and Vancouver.

This improved connectivity means:

• More weekend travelers and digital nomads choosing Guanacaste.

• Stronger short-term rental potential, particularly within 45 minutes of the airport.

• Increasing demand for turnkey investment properties near Liberia, Coco, and Tamarindo.

“If you’re within a 1-hour drive of the airport, your property is going to remain in high demand,” notes Álvarez.

🌱 Trend 3: Sustainability and Wellness Real Estate on the Rise

Costa Rica’s brand is built on ecology and wellness-and that is now influencing its real estate offerings.

Buyers in 2026 are expected to seek out:

• Eco-conscious developments with solar power, greywater recycling, and native landscaping.

• Wellness communities that offer yoga, organic gardens, walking trails, and co-working spaces.

• Homes that support biophilic design-emphasizing nature views, natural light, and indoor/outdoor integration.

  
  

Developments such as La Ecovilla near San Mateo or new jungle retreats outside of Playa Grande are setting the tone for what buyers are craving post-2025: balance.

💰 Trend 4: The Return of the Strategic Investor

2026 will likely mark the return of investors focused on medium- to long-term cash flow, not just appreciation.

While flipping homes is less viable due to increased prices, investors are showing renewed interest in:

• Vacation rentals with management services included (especially in Playas del Coco and Ocotal).

• Multi-unit properties that can house both owners and rental guests.

• Pre-construction units offering 15–20% upside upon completion.

Notably, land purchases are also gaining traction again, particularly in Sardinal, Nuevo Colón, and pockets along Route 21, where water access is now available.

🛠️ Trend 5: Infrastructure Will Define the Next Hotspots

The Costa Rican government is investing millions in roads, bridges, and broadband expansion in Guanacaste, with particular focus on:

• Expanding the Route 21 corridor

• Improving access roads to beaches like Playa Danta, Playa Ocotal, and Playa Matapalo

• Installing fiber-optic networks in under-connected communities

  
  

These infrastructure upgrades are already affecting where developers are focusing their attention-and where prices are likely to jump next.

📊 Numbers to Watch

Here are several key metrics to track as 2026 unfolds:

Metric	2025 (Actual)	2026 (Projected)
Median Home Price (Guanacaste)	$439,000 USD	$460,000 – $475,000 USD
New Construction Starts	800+ units	950+ units
International Arrivals to LIR	1.2M+	1.3M+
Average Airbnb Occupancy	68%	70–72%
U.S./Canada Buyer Share	30–35%	38–40%

🏡 Who Will Benefit Most?

Buyers who are prepared and well-informed. The Costa Rican real estate market in 2026 will reward those who:

• Work with experienced bilingual agents.

• Conduct full legal due diligence (including water availability).

• Consider not just aesthetics, but resale value, rental potential, and infrastructure access.

Foreigners-especially Americans and Canadians- will continue to dominate the market, but the rise of remote workers, second-home buyers, and retirement-aged investors will add diversity to the buyer pool.

Final Thoughts

Guanacaste in 2026 isn’t just a sunny escape-it’s a resilient real estate market evolving in real time. The region is learning to balance growth with sustainability, luxury with authenticity, and international demand with local identity.

For buyers willing to learn the market, partner with the right professionals, and think long-term, Guanacaste offers both a lifestyle and investment edge that few destinations can match.

And as the sun sets over the golden beaches of Coco and Conchal, one thing is clear: Costa Rica’s real estate story is far from finished-it’s just getting interesting.

Want help finding the best condo deals in Playa del Coco?

Contact me directly for personalized listings, video walkthroughs, or a free consultation.

sabina@palmrealetsatecr.com| WhatsApp Me +506 8713 8080 | Based in Guanacaste, CR